I don’t know about you, but I find if you
read the Daily Mail, there are only three topics that make the blood boil of
‘Middle England’. Bureaucracy from Brussels, House Prices and the late Princess
of Wales. Ignoring the late Princess if I can for this article, but if we as a
country were to unshackle ourselves from chains of Brussels (the first topic),
could we inadvertently effect the second topic and make UK house values drop?
If you read all the newspapers, the Brexit
debate seems to be focused solely on central London. Many commentators have
said Brexit would mean central London would have a lower standing in the world,
meaning less people would be employed in Central London, with the implication
of lower wages, fewer jobs etc., in Central London ... but we are in Maidenhead,
not Marylebone, Mayfair or any part of Zone 1 London.
Now on the run up to the vote on the 23rd
of June, I predict the ‘in’ camp will start to scare homeowners with forecasts
of negative equity, and the ‘out’ camp will appeal to the 20 somethings, who have
been priced out of the property market with the prospect of a new era of inexpensive
housing, should the fears of central London estate agents and developers, who
believe the bottom will fall out of the market if we do leave, become real. The
only reason the Mayfair’s, Knightsbridge’s, and Kensington’s of central London
are attractive to foreign buyers are political and economic steadiness, an open
and honest legal system and a lively cultural life. None of that is threatened
by Brexit.
... But again, we are in Maidenhead and central
London is 29 miles away. We are home town to the Maidenhead Rowing Club and was
home to Sir Nicholas Winton, and whilst the central London property market
exploded after 2009, that explosion really and honestly didn’t affect the Maidenhead
property market. So, putting central London aside, what would an ‘in’ or ‘out’
vote really mean for the 17,700 property owners of Maidenhead?
Initially, over the coming months, on the
run up to referendum, I believe it will be like the run up to last year’s
General Election. With the short-term uncertainty in the country, quite often,
big decisions are put on ice and people are less likely to make big money
purchases i.e. buy a property. However, in the four months up to last year’s
Election, property values in Maidenhead increased by 5.36%, not bad for a country
that thought it would get a hung parliament! So that argument doesn’t hold much
weight with me.
Post vote, should the UK opt to leave
Brussels, there would be a much more noteworthy impact. I believe that a vote
to stay in the EU would see the Maidenhead property market return to a status
quo very quickly, but the contrasting result could lead to some changes. The principal
menace to the Maidenhead (and UK) housing market could be variation (in an
upwards direction) in interest rates as a result of a Brexit, which could theoretically
see the cost of mortgages grow swiftly, pricing many out of the market … but
then two thirds of landlords buy without a mortgage, so that won’t affect them.
Also, according to the Bank of England, 80.33% of all new mortgages taken out
in 2015 were fixed rate. Looking at all mortgages as a whole, according to the
Bank of England, 44% of all UK mortgagees have a fixed rate mortgage, but 56%
don’t, so if you aren’t on a fixed rate ... talk to your mortgage broker now,
because they can only go in one direction!
So in reality, if I really knew what will
happen, I wouldn’t be an estate agent in Maidenhead, but a City Whiz
Kid in London earning millions. However, I suspect whatever decision the
electorate of Maidenhead and the country as a whole makes, over the long term
it won’t have a major effect on the Maidenhead property market. We have seen
off ‘the end of the world’ credit crunch of 2008/9 and subsequent property
crash, the 1988 Nigel Lawson induced post dual-MIRAS property crash, the 1979
Winter of Discontent property crash, the 1974 oil crisis that stimulated
another property crash ... hell, we can even go back nearly a century with the
1926 post General Strike slump in property prices...
Today, property prices are 326.29% higher
than 21 years ago in Maidenhead and are 10.6% higher than 12 months ago. So,
make your own decision on 23rd of June 2016 safe in knowledge that whatever the
result, there might be some short term volatility in the Maidenhead property
market, but in the long term (and property investment is a long term strategy) there
aren’t enough houses in Maidenhead to live in either to buy or rent … and until
the Government allow more properties to be built – the Maidenhead property
market, will be just fine ... even if it has a little blip in the summer, there
could be some property bargains on the run up to Christmas to be had!
For more advice and opinion on the Maidenhead
property market, even where those buy to let bargains could be found now ...