Prices up, prices down, prices stable .. the newspapers are
full of good news, bad news and indifferent news about the Brit’s favourite
subject after the weather .. the property market. The thing is the UK does not
have one housing market. Instead, it is a patchwork of mini property markets
all performing in a different way. At
one end of scale is London, which has seen average prices grow in the last
twelve months by a shade under 19% (and again that is an average because some
Borough’s in London have risen by 26%) whilst
in the land of Daffodils , by contrast, Wales only saw a 2% increase in
property values (although in the Merthyr Valleys they dropped by over 11%).
Well we can’t ignore the rest of the UK, and we can’t forget
that the Chancellor’s Stamp Duty reforms have polarised the London property markets
above £1,000,000 because at the top end of the market, punitive Stamp Duty
charges will dampen demand further. While the Bank of England warned of the
growing London property price bubble in the Spring of 2014, even talk of a
recovery in some areas was premature. In 2015, irrespective of where you are in
the UK, one story will unite the patchwork quilt of markets – really slow property value growth.
But what about Maidenhead? Well, we haven’t had the December
figures from the Land Registry yet but the last few months’ activity and prices
achieved would suggest neither house price growth nor drops. In fact, most sellers are buyers anyway, so
if you need to take less for yours, you won’t have to pay as much for the one
you want to buy ... and that is good news for everyone as most move up market
when they move. This is even better for landlord investors, as they can bag a
bargain as well.
The question you should be asking though is not only is what
happening to property prices, but which price band exactly is selling? I like
to keep an eye on the property market in Maidenhead on a daily basis because it
enables me to give the best advice and opinion on what (or not ) to buy in Maidenhead.
If you look at Maidenhead and split the property market into
four equalled sized (into terms of households) price bands. Each price band
would have around 25% of the property in Maidenhead, from the lowest in value
(the bottom 25% ) all the way through to the highest 25% (in terms of value). Over the last two months (63 days to be
precise), in the lowest quartile, (those with asking prices under £290k) 64
properties have come onto the market in Maidenhead and 39% of them (25 properties have a buyer
and sold stc. The next quartile, between £290k-£400, of the 84 properties that
come on to the market, 46.4% of them (39 properties) have a buyer. The £400k -
£590k price range has seen 90 properties come on to the market, and 36.6% of
the properties have a buyer (23 properties). The most expensive 25%, the £590k
plus range, has seen 28 of the 116 properties that came on to the market find
buyers (24.1%). Fascinating don’t you think?
The next three months’ activity will be crucial in
understanding which way the market will go this year and I honestly believe we
will not see any house price growth or drops this side of the election.
Election or no election, people will always need a roof over their head and
that is why the property market has rode the storms of Oil crisis in the
1970’s, the 1980’s depression, Black Monday in the 1990’s, and latterly the
Credit Crunch together with the various house price crashes of 1973, 1987 and
2008.
And why? Because of Britain’s chronic lack of housing will
prop up house prices and prevent a post spike crash. ... there is always a
silver lining when it comes to the property market!
