Even the most sane person in Britain has to admit the Brexit
vote will, in one shape or another, affect the UK Property market. Excluding
central London which is another world, most commentators are saying prices will
be affected by around 10%. So looking at the commentators’ thoughts in more
detail, property values in Maidenhead will be 10% lower than they would have
been if we hadn’t voted to leave the EU.
As the average value of a property in the Windsor and
Maidenhead Council area is £490,000, this means property values are set to drop
for the average Maidenhead property by £49,000 … batten down the hatches ..
soup kitchens and mega recession here we come ..it’s going to get rough.
.. but before we all go into panic mode in Maidenhead .. the
devil is always in the detail
Look at the phrase again, and I have highlighted the relevant
part “Property values in Maidenhead will be 10% lower than they would have been
if we hadn’t voted to leave the EU”
Property values today, according to the Land Registry are 16.12%
higher than a year ago in the Windsor and Maidenhead Council area. The 12
months before that they rose by 11.79% and the 12 months before that, they rose
by 8%. If we hadn’t voted to leave, I believe on these figures, we could have
safely assumed Maidenhead House prices would have been 12% higher by the Summer
of 2017.
… and that’s the point, we won’t see a house price crash in Maidenhead,
it’s just that house prices in a years time will only be 2% higher than they
are now (ie 12% less the 10% lower figure because of Brexit). Let’s look at the
historic figures and how that compares to today’s figures for the Windsor and
Maidenhead Council area and Maidenhead as a whole.
- Average Value of a property 20 years ago £ 96,500
- Average Value of a property 10 years ago £284,500
- Average Value of a property 2 years ago £377,500
- Average Value of a property 1 year ago £422,000
- Average Value of a property today £490,000
- Projected Value of a property in 12 months’ time £500,000
Therefore, I believe that whilst prices are likely to remain
flat for a while, we should still see a modest increase of £10k in the average
value of a Maidenhead property in 12 months’ time.
That’s not to say Maidenhead property prices might not dip
slightly in the run up to Christmas (in fact they always have done just about
every year since the year 2000 and most of those were boom years) .. but in 12
months time this is my considered opinion of where Maidenhead property values
will be.. and looking at the historic prices, even if I (and many other property
market commentators) are wrong and they drop 10% from TODAY’S figure .. in the
whole scheme of things, we have been through a Credit Crunch, Black Monday and
15% interest rates over the last 20 to 30 years .. and still Maidenhead house
prices have always bounced back.
Whilst the UK's vote for Brexit has created an uncertainty
in the Maidenhead housing market, there is no need to panic and prospective
buyers should merely use common sense about their purchases. I always say to people
to be prudent and if you are taking out a mortgage, at some stage during the
life of that mortgage, circumstances will be difficult. We won’t have a 2008
Credit crunch fire sale of properties because after the Mortgage Market Review,
which took place in the Spring of 2013, mortgage borrowers are not as highly
leveraged this time around. As a result of this, with any luck there will
not be too many distressed sales, which cause widespread price reductions.
No comments:
Post a Comment